Primary Uses
- Optimizing and integrating assets
- Structuring long-term energy purchases, trades, and hedges
- Balancing energy sources and reserves
- Planning for climate anomalies
- Financial and portfolio planning
Seasonal Wind Power Forecasting makes long-term planning more manageable with a probabilistic prediction of the next 12 months based on 40 years of site-specific climatology as well as the current state of forecasted climate indices impacting your wind project. For enhanced precision and reduced forecast bias, 3TIER can also incorporate available historical met tower data to perform model output statistics (MOS).
Updated each month for the most current estimates, this forecast gives you the perspective of a meteorology or climatology expert on how current and upcoming climate index patterns, such as El Niño, are influencing energy production.
The online forecast graphic displays both predicted average energy production and capacity factor for the next 12 months. In addition, 3TIER provides expected ranges of forecast production to compare climate index forecasts with site-specific climatology. The forecast graphic is a reference, enabling quick, at-a-glance decision-making and a downloadable data file is also updated each month for more in depth scenario analysis and financial planning.
Forecast graphic displays:
A downloadable data file is updated monthly and includes the monthly climatology and forecasted capacity factors at the P25, P50, and P75 quartiles.
Forecast features are made available via a client-specific dashboard interface accompanied by a comma-separated values (CSV) data file.
3TIER produces the seasonal wind power forecast using a combination of advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and publicly available climate forecasts. When historical, site-specific observations are available, 3TIER will incorporate these data into our climatology and forecasts to increase accuracy and reduce bias using a model output statistics (MOS) technique.
In order to provide the most accurate seasonal forecasts, 3TIER requests at least one year of historical met tower or project wind speed data. Additionally, if historical power and wind speed observations are available, 3TIER can derive an empirical power curve that best characterizes your project.
If you are unfamiliar with the technical terminology on this page, please visit our Glossary for more information.
