Wind Performance Reconciliation puts recent and future wind performance in context so you understand the risks and implications of variability at potential or existing projects across your portfolio. 3TIER enables you to optimize and diversify your assets and our quarterly forecasts help you structure long-term hedges for energy and capacity transactions.
It takes more than 10-20 years of climatology to fully understand normal variability and reoccurring climate anomalies. That is why 3TIER includes 40+ years of site-specific, statistically corrected data to deliver the long-term context necessary to distinguish normal cyclical variability and non-standard climate anomalies that impact wind power production.
Each quarter 3TIER delivers a report discussing the climate and weather patterns that affected your project sites during the past 3 months, as well as site-specific data showing how the past quarter compares to the long-term mean. GIS-formatted anomaly maps are included to show where wind speeds were above or below their 40-year average value both in terms of an anomaly ratio and probability of exceedance. 3TIER also delivers the underlying time series data at all of your project sites.
In addition to a detailed analysis of the previous quarter, 3TIER also provides a 3-month forecast for the upcoming quarter based on current conditions and climate trends. This forecast allows you to plan for anomalies in advance and perform integrated resource analysis. A 12-month outlook can also be delivered upon request.
This product is made available through PDF reports, GIS formatted maps, and data files transferred via secure FTP.
Meteorological data utilized for reconciliation services are derived from 3TIER's continually updated, NWP derived datasets. Anomaly and probability maps for recent periods are compared against long-term mean conditions over the period 1969-2008.
Historical power production data or met tower observations are used to correct the model simulations in a process known as model output statistics or MOS. This method significantly reduces error, removes bias, and improves the certainty of the analysis. 3TIER's proprietary MOS technique has shown proven accuracy in both internal and independent validation studies.
If you are unfamiliar with the technical terminology on this page, please visit our Glossary for more information.
