3TIER
Regional Wind Forecasting

Regional Wind Forecasting

Designed for: Energy Marketer/Trader, Grid System Operator & Operator
For pricing and purchase details:
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Gain a Competitive Edge with Region-Wide Forecasts

Primary Uses

  • Manage PPAs, EMAs, hedges, and energy trades
  • Reduce imbalance charges and penalties
  • Anticipate forward market conditions and calculate supply curves
  • Make informed decisions about reserve energy sources
  • Gain efficiency and manage asset optimization across your portfolio
  • Make informed decisions about purchasing transmission rights

3TIER applies cutting edge science and robust super-computing capabilities to solve the problem of wind variability. Our Regional Wind Forecast is designed to give energy traders, schedulers, and asset managers the critical information they need to reduce risk and make day-to-day financial and operational decisions with confidence. Our hour, day, and week-ahead forecasts enable you to bid into forward markets and proactively manage your assets based on scientifically supported predictions rather than reacting to real time constraints.

Regional Wind Forecasting Available Regions

ACCURACY AND USABILITY

Take advantage of 3TIER's unparalleled experience in wind energy forecasting with an aggregate wind speed and power forecast based on the latest in numerical weather prediction modeling and statistical correction. Because we believe in transparency and stand by our accuracy, we include advanced verification tools showing our forecast against actual observations for various horizon times and project variables. These tools allow the user to evaluate exactly how our forecasts are performing, risk-adjust transactions, and access an unprecedented amount of historical forecast data. Delivered via a dynamic dashboard interface, forecast information is presented both as an at-a-glance graphic and in downloadable data files. These files can also be directly integrated with your internal software through our API.

PERFORM SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Select up to 9 sub-regions customized to the specific demands of your work and see forecasts for each individual sub-region. With 3TIER's Aggregator Tool, you can also directly impact the forecast with your knowledge of outages and transmission constraints. Easily turn specific projects or even entire sub-regions 'on or off' to perform advanced scenario analysis and download the results for further examination.

Technical Overview

Product Features

Hour-Ahead Forecasts
  • Update interval depends on frequency of observations
  • 1 hour granularity
Day-Ahead Forecasts
  • Updates 4 times per day
  • 84 hour projection
  • 1 hour granularity
Week-Ahead Forecasts
  • Updates once daily
  • 168 hour projection
  • 1 hour granularity
Verification Tools
  • Hourly and Daily Time Series Verification
  • Hourly Horizon Time Verification
  • Wind Error Histogram
  • Wind Recent Performance
Aggregator Tool
  • Click specific projects and sub-regions 'on or off' and download the adjusted forecast as a data file. Learn more.
Rewind Tool
  • See how forecasts are evolving over time by comparing the current forecast with previous predictions.

Forecasts include hourly values for aggregate power in megawatts, generating capacity by percentage, and aggregated capacity-weighted wind speed.

Optional Features

  • Where aggregate power data is available, 3TIER can apply model output statistics (MOS) to the model simulations, reducing overall forecast error and correcting forecast biases. The forecasted and observed power for a specified time horizon is shown as an easy to interpret time-series graphic.
  • An API is also available for faster integration of downloadable forecast data into your internal analysis tools and programming software.

Available Regions

 Regional Wind Forecasting Available Regions

Delivery Method

Forecasting tools are delivered via a client-specific, dashboard interface. Downloadable data files are provided in a comma-separated value (CSV) format to allow easy integration with your own internal systems.

Product Highlights

  • Guaranteed 24/7 availability
  • User defined sub-regions
  • Customizable dashboard interface
  • Security. Easily set up your own permissions system with usernames and passwords for access to information. A secure password protected web host server is also provided for all data transfers.
  • Scalability. Our model and data hardware will continually adapt as new wind projects come online and new data becomes available to ensure the highest forecasting accuracy.

Methodology

Inputs
  • Project latitude and longitude
  • Nameplate capacity
  • Turbine make and model
  • Site in-service date
  • User-defined sub-group specification
  • Aggregate power observations
Regional Wind Forecasting Methodology
Outputs
  • Aggregate power (MW)
  • Generating capacity (%)
  • Aggregated capacity-weighted wind speed (m/s)

Aligned with 3TIER's commitment to using state-of-the-art, proven, and transparent methods, our regional wind forecast system is a combination of publicly available global and regional weather forecasts, high resolution surface data, and highly customized mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The result is an aggregate wind speed forecast converted into real world values of hourly power generation in megawatts using asset-specific manufacturer power curve data. Where aggregate power data is publicly available, 3TIER will incorporate observations to deliver statistically corrected power forecasts.

Customer Requirements

In order to provide regional wind power forecasting, 3TIER only requires you to select your region of interest and provide sub-region geographic boundary specifications or wind project lists.

If you are unfamiliar with the technical terminology on this page, please visit our Glossary for more information.

Geographic Availability

Available in the United States
Product Available
Coming Soon

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